The modern world economy is based on a finite resource that is being depleted at a relatively rapid rate. Oil is perhaps the most important natural resource given its various applications: it is used in production of virtually all manmade goods either as fuel for transportation or as products derived from oil, such as plastics, lubricants or waxes. Agriculture, transportation, modern medicine, even modern computing is dependant on oil (EIA). With the world economy based on this all-important resource, perhaps the most significant situation in the Arab world is the approach of Hubbert’s peak, which signifies the end of cheap, available oil.
Hubbert’s peak is named after the American geophysicist who theorized that the production of easily accessible and cheap oil would reach a peak before declining as the resource dwindled in the near future. This concept of peak oil is particularly important to the Arab world not only because the region produces 35.9% of the world’s oil a year (BP), but also because 9 of the 21 largest oil fields have already peaked and are in decline, indicating that global peak oil is just around the corner (EIA). The ramifications for this are not yet known, but to be sure, the effect of declining oil production on the Arab world will be great.
To make matters more significant, the idea of peak oil is exacerbated by Malthusian theory.As global oil production begins to slowly dwindle, one needs to be wary that the population continues to grow; oil per capita decreased from 5.26 barrels per year in 1980, to 4.73 barrels per year in 2006 (EIA). Meanwhile, increases in oil demand in developing nations like India and China put a strain on production (OPEC), resulting in exorbitant prices for oil as seen in 2008’s oil prices reaching as high as $147 a barrel. Although the recent global economic downturn has tempered demand for oil at this moment, demand will eventually outstrip production in the near future because of the finite nature of the precious resource (OPEC). This eventual return to the intersection where reduced supply meets increased demand of oil gives unparalleled opportunity to the Arab world, especially since 19.6 million barrels per day of oil are produced in the region (BP).
As oil prices increased in the past years, countries such as Iran and the United Arab Emirates have used profits to further their personal goals. On one hand, the UAE used oil profits to pave the way for massive real estate and business expansion, resulting in a shift away from an oil based economy. On the other hand, Iran used high oil prices to help fund ambitious domestic social programs as well as bolster international influence by making deals with Venezuela and Russia. However, when oil gets too expensive because of paucity, Arab nations may not necessarily enjoy the power that their oil is supposed to provide.
A Google search of peak oil will result in 12 million sites, the majority of which address the apocalyptic Malthusian catastrophe of when oil production cannot meet oil demand. Some sites even have suggestions for survival gear in order to weather the post-peak oil wasteland (Savinar). As stated before, modern medicine, agriculture, computing, and more are made possible by cheap, available oil. With oil much harder to acquire, nations may very well turn to armed conflict in order to procure life sustaining oil. Precedence has already been set for military action to procure or secure oil deposits in Arab nations – Gulf War 1 and 2 being the most prominent.
Even if violent conflict is avoided, the impact of peak oil would still be devastating. Nations, especially ones that were dependant on oil, would be adversely affected, and changes would be “abrupt and revolutionary (Hirsch).” Higher oil prices would result in increased cost of goods, inflation, and unemployment in oil importing nations. The net economic impact of such drastically expensive oil would be negative (Hirsch), and ultimately, it would be up to the oil exporting nations to take a leadership role in plotting the direction of the global economy. In coming decades, if one does not see violent conflicts over the shortage of oil, then one could perhaps see the shift in power from the West to the Middle East.
"Crude Oil FAQs". Energy Information Administration. 2/13/2009 <http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/ask/crudeoil_faqs.asp>.
Hirsch, Robert. "Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management ". Department of Energy. 2/13/2009 <http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf>.
Savinar, Matt. "Peak Oil: Life After the Oil Crash". 2/13/2009 <http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/>.
"Statistical Review of World Energy 2008". BP Global. 2/13/2009 <http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/spreadsheets/statistical_review_full_report_workbook_2008.xls>.
So last night I dreamed that I was in the Marines with my college buddies. We were in the middle of a war zone, and right before we go out to fight, we all gather around a conference room and share something about our experiences together. For some reason, when it was my turn to share, I got up in front of everyone and said, "I will always remember watching 'Band of Brothers' with my band of brothers." Corny, I know, but hey, we were about to go off to battle. I noticed that as we were getting ready, I had 4 guns on me, an M16, an MP5, a .357 revolver, and a silenced usp. Kt carried only a sniper rifle, while I was burdened with having to carry so many guns that I eventually ended up just running out with a pistol.
So my analysis of this dream is probably two fold. On one hand, my college friends are still very much on my mind, and I care deeply for them. I feel that I went through a lot with my buddies, and as a result, I feel that we have forged unbreakable bonds of friendship. If they ever needed me, I would be there in a flash, regardless of the situation. On the other hand, I believe my dream is trying to tell me something about my penchance for plans. I had multiple guns to meet various needs on the battlefield - an M16 for range, an MP5 for medium range, a revolver for short range, and a silenced pistol for stealth. However, in the end, I was so burdened by my various guns that I ended up paralyzed, and I could only take the least useful gun. Where some people have one plan and stick to it, I have many and am left paralyzed by them.
Pretty sure its over now. Pity party is winding down. Really digging this song by Nickelback; makes me think about the good times spent with the boys. Good friends - what a great way to get over a girl.
This song is everything I was and hope to be again - optimistic, cheerful, romantic. I think I realize that if I can't be with someone that appreciates me for my sappy romanticism, then I'd rather be alone.
Gotta Be Somebody- Nickelback
This time I wonder what it feels like To find the one in this life The one we all dream of But dreams just aren't enough So I´ll be waiting for the real thing. I'll know it by the feeling. The moment when we´re meeting Will play out like a scene straight off the silver screen So I`ll be holdin’ my breath Right up to the end Until that moment when I find the one that I'll spend forever with
`Cause nobody wants to be the last one there. 'Cause everyone wants to feel like someone cares. Someone to love with my life in their hands. There`s gotta be somebody for me like that.
`Cause nobody wants to go it on their own And everyone wants to know they´re not alone. Somebody else that feels the same somewhere. There`s gotta be somebody for me out there.
Tonight out on the street out in the moonlight And damn it this feels too right It´s just like Déjà Vu Me standin’ here with you So I´ll be holdin`my breath Could this be the end? Is it that moment when I find the one that I'll spend forever with?
‘Cause nobody wants to be the last one there 'Cause everyone wants to feel like someone cares. Someone to love with my life in their hands. There´s gotta be somebody for me like that.
`Cause nobody wants to go it on their own And everyone wants to know they´re not alone. Somebody else that feels the same somewhere? There`s gotta be somebody for me out there.
You can´t give up! When you're Lookin´ for a diamond in the rough Because you never know when it shows up Make sure you´re holdin` on ‘Cause it could be the one, the one you´re waiting on
‘Cause nobody wants to be the last one there. And everyone wants to feel like someone cares. Someone to love with my life in their hands. There's gotta be somebody for me Ohhhhhh.
Nobody wants to go it on their own And everyone wants to know they´re not alone. Somebody else that feels the same somewhere? There `s gotta be somebody for me out there.
Nobody wants to be the last one there And everyone wants to feel like someone cares. Somebody else that feels the same somewhere? There's gotta be somebody for me out there.
